Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 20 as Gornik Zabrze welcome Lech Poznan to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Gornik Zabrze — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's home record at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lech Poznan stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gornik Zabrze at 1.50 PPG versus Lech Poznan's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Lech Poznan have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Gornik Zabrze.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Lech Poznan winning.
It is worth noting that Lech Poznan have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 51% versus Lech Poznan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 49% | Lech Poznan 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.70 xG and Lech Poznan 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.181 / defence 0.925 | Lech Poznan attack 0.902 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.242. Data: 53 Gornik Zabrze games / 53 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 52% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 22%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Lech Poznan 4.55. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gornik Zabrze at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 70% | Lech Poznan 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 52% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.70 / Lech Poznan 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.181 / def 0.925 | Lech Poznan attack 0.902 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Lech Poznan xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?
Gornik Zabrze 0 - 1 Lech Poznan.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 52% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan?
Record (9 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 2W | Draws 2 | Lech Poznan 5W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Lech Poznan (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 1.18x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.88
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.73
1.04
Lech Poznan xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
4%
24.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.04 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 53 games, going 23W 11D 19L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lech Poznan sit at 1.81 PPG from 53 outings (28W 12D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.51 PPG, Lech Poznan on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 14W 5D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Lech Poznan have taken 1.46 points per game from 26 outings (10W 8D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.85 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 23W 11D 19L in their last 53 games (1.51 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 28W 12D 13L in their last 53 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Lech Poznan away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.81 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Lech Poznan have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
6
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 2, Lech Poznan have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 54%, Lech Poznan 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Gornik Zabrze) and 50% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 42%; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 27% of games; Lech Poznan in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Lech Poznan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 46% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 50% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lech Poznan defy the odds to beat Gornik Zabrze 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Gornik Zabrze 0-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.70 xG and Lech Poznan 1.04 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.18 / defence 0.93 against Lech Poznan attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 52% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 22%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Lech Poznan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 49%, Lech Poznan 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.51 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lech Poznan win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.