Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 32 as Cracovia Krakow welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Zaglebie Lubin's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cracovia Krakow's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 0 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 45% versus Zaglebie Lubin 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 40% | Zaglebie Lubin 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.53 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.062 / defence 0.879 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.330 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.008. Zaglebie Lubin have an above-average attack strength of 1.330 — the away xG of 1.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Cracovia Krakow games / 65 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 44% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 28%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Cracovia Krakow dominate the H2H record, yet Zaglebie Lubin are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zaglebie Lubin (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Zaglebie Lubin 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 44% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.53 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.062 / def 0.879 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.330 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Zaglebie Lubin xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 44% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (3 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 2W | Draws 1 | Zaglebie Lubin 0W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (1.06) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.64
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.71
1.18
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
6%
16.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.18 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 23W 19D 23L from 65 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 31L across 65 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.35 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 14W 10D 8L from 32 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 11W 5D 16L across 32 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.14 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 23W 19D 23L in their last 65 games (1.35 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 21W 13D 31L in their last 65 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.62 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cracovia Krakow
5
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 41%, Zaglebie Lubin 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cracovia Krakow) and 66% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 41% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 66% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Cracovia Krakow 0-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.53 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.18 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.06 / defence 0.88 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.33 / defence 1.08, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 44% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 28%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 40%, Zaglebie Lubin 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.35 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.