Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cracovia Krakow at 2.00 PPG versus Piast Gliwice's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cracovia Krakow's 30% rate and Piast Gliwice's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cracovia Krakow, 1 for Piast Gliwice and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 40% versus Piast Gliwice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cracovia Krakow 43% | Piast Gliwice 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.60 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.222 / defence 0.717 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.838 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.185. Cracovia Krakow's defence rating of 0.717 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Cracovia Krakow games / 37 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 58% | Draw 25% | Piast Gliwice 16%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Piast Gliwice 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Cracovia Krakow (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 30% | Piast Gliwice 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 58% | Draw 25% | Piast Gliwice 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 41% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.60 / Piast Gliwice 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.222 / def 0.717 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.838 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Piast Gliwice xG
41%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 58% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
Record (2 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 1.22x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
58%
1.71
25%
3.97
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.31
0.71
Piast Gliwice xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
3%
30.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.71 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 37 games, going 15W 9D 13L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Piast Gliwice sit at 1.46 PPG from 37 outings (15W 9D 13L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.46 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 9W 5D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Piast Gliwice have taken 1.53 points per game from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.22 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 15W 9D 13L in their last 37 games (1.46 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 9D 13L in their last 37 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.68 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
5
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Piast Gliwice have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 2-3 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 42%, Piast Gliwice 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cracovia Krakow) and 26% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 37%; Piast Gliwice in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 32% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 26% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Piast Gliwice defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Cracovia Krakow 0-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.60 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.71 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.22 / defence 0.72 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 58% | Draw 25% | Piast Gliwice 16%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Piast Gliwice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 43%, Piast Gliwice 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.46 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.