Viking 2-2 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Viking at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Stromsgodset travel to SR-Bank Arena to take on Viking. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 October 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Viking stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's home record at SR-Bank Arena: 4W 2D 3L from 9 Eliteserien appearances (1.56 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Viking have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Viking in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 63% and Stromsgodset 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 74% | Stromsgodset 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.09 xG and Stromsgodset 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.240 / defence 1.310 | Stromsgodset attack 0.798 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.404. Data: 19 Viking games / 19 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 52% | Draw 21% | Stromsgodset 27%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | Stromsgodset 3.70. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 78% | Stromsgodset 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Oct 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 52% | Draw 21% | Stromsgodset 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Viking 2.09 / Stromsgodset 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.240 / def 1.310 | Stromsgodset attack 0.798 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Viking (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Stromsgodset xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Viking vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 4 October 2020 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Viking 2 - 2 Stromsgodset.
Where is Viking vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Stromsgodset part of?
Viking vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 52% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Viking and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Stromsgodset?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Stromsgodset in?
Viking (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Viking's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
52%
1.92
21%
4.75
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Viking xG
Total xG
3.56
1.47
Stromsgodset xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
3%
30.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Viking and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Viking and 1.47 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Viking have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 8W 4D 7L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset's form line: 5W 7D 7L from 19 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Viking on 1.47 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Viking have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.37 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 games (1.47 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 5W 7D 7L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Stromsgodset away?
Viking's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.56 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2024, when Viking won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Viking
3
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Stromsgodset?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Viking at 78%, Stromsgodset at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Viking and 56% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Viking's games and 56% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Viking's matches and 56% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Viking and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking and Stromsgodset share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking and Stromsgodset finished level at 2-2 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.09 xG and Stromsgodset 1.47 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.24 / defence 1.31 against Stromsgodset attack 0.80 / defence 1.18, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 52% | Draw 21% | Stromsgodset 27%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 74%, Stromsgodset 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.47 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.