Viking 5-2 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Viking at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Stromsgodset travel to SR-Bank Arena to take on Viking. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 August 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Viking stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's home record at SR-Bank Arena: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Viking have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Viking, 2 for Stromsgodset and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Viking winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Viking in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 61% versus Stromsgodset 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 57% | Stromsgodset 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.86 xG and Stromsgodset 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.125 / defence 0.863 | Stromsgodset attack 0.850 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.324. Data: 49 Viking games / 49 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 58% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 19%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Stromsgodset 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Viking (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 60% | Stromsgodset 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 58% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Viking 1.86 / Stromsgodset 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.125 / def 0.863 | Stromsgodset attack 0.850 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Viking (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Viking xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Stromsgodset xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Viking vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Viking 5 - 2 Stromsgodset.
Where is Viking vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Stromsgodset part of?
Viking vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 58% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Viking and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Stromsgodset?
Record (7 meetings): Viking 2W | Draws 3 | Stromsgodset 2W.
What form are Viking and Stromsgodset in?
Viking (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Viking's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.46
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Viking xG
Total xG
2.83
0.97
Stromsgodset xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
3%
33.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Viking and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Viking and 0.97 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Viking have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 27W 10D 12L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset's form line: 19W 8D 22L from 49 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Viking have posted 2.12 PPG from 25 outings (16W 5D 4L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 8W 4D 13L from 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.22 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 27W 10D 12L in their last 49 games (1.86 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 19W 8D 22L in their last 49 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Stromsgodset away?
Viking's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.12 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2024, when Viking won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Viking
3
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Stromsgodset?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 72%, Stromsgodset 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Viking) and 40% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Viking's games and 44% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Viking's recent games and 40% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Viking and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Stromsgodset 5-2 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.86 xG and Stromsgodset 0.97 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stromsgodset outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.12 / defence 0.86 against Stromsgodset attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 58% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 19%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 57%, Stromsgodset 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Viking (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.24 average — above their attacking norm. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.