Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Viking have posted 6W 2D 2L at SR-Bank Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Viking's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sarpsborg 08 FF's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 69% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 77% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.51 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.139 / defence 1.170 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.778 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.250. Sarpsborg 08 FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Viking's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Viking games / 52 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 66% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 14%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Viking (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.51 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 90% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 66% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 64% | xG Viking 2.51 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.139 / def 1.170 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.778 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Viking (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
64%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
Where is Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 66% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Viking (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.14x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.78x) against Viking's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
66%
1.52
20%
4.88
14%
7.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Viking xG
Total xG
3.65
1.14
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
7.24
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
8%
12.33
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
1%
89.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Viking and 1.14 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Viking's recent record stands at 23W 13D 16L from 52 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 25L across 52 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Viking have managed 14W 6D 6L from 26 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 4W 6D 16L across 26 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Viking are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.08 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 23W 13D 16L in their last 52 games (1.58 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 14W 13D 25L in their last 52 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Viking's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.85 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Viking or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Viking
2
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 5, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for Viking, 54% for Sarpsborg 08 FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Viking and 50% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Viking's games and 54% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Viking's matches and 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Viking's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF finished level at 0-0 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.51 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.14 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Viking fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.14 / defence 1.17 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.78 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 66% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 14%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 77%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.