Valerenga vs Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Stabaek encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Stabaek travel to Intility Arena to take on Valerenga. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Valerenga at Intility Arena this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stabaek — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Valerenga are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Valerenga, 0 for Stabaek and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 63% versus Stabaek 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 53% | Stabaek 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.57 xG and Stabaek 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.955 / defence 0.963 | Stabaek attack 1.029 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.374. Data: 33 Valerenga games / 30 Stabaek games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Valerenga 41% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 32%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Stabaek 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valerenga are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 70% | Stabaek 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 41% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Valerenga 1.57 / Stabaek 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.955 / def 0.963 | Stabaek attack 1.029 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Stabaek xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Stabaek kick off?
Valerenga vs Stabaek kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Intility Arena.
Where is Valerenga vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Stabaek part of?
Valerenga vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 41% chance of winning, Stabaek a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Valerenga and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Stabaek?
Record (2 meetings): Valerenga 0W | Draws 2 | Stabaek 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Stabaek in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Valerenga's attack at 0.95x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
41%
2.41
27%
3.77
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.93
1.36
Stabaek xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.36 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Valerenga have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 15W 10D 5L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Stabaek's form line: 9W 12D 9L from 30 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Valerenga are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Valerenga have posted 2.33 PPG from 15 outings (10W 5D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 4W 6D 5L from 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.37 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
Stabaek
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 games (1.83 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Stabaek away?
Valerenga's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.33 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Stabaek in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Stabaek runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Valerenga's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Valerenga
3
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 2, Stabaek have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Valerenga 0-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Stabaek?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 67%, Stabaek 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Valerenga and 67% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stabaek in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Valerenga's games and 60% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Valerenga's matches and 67% of Stabaek's.
Do Valerenga and Stabaek tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valerenga's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga and Stabaek finished level at 0-0 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.57 xG and Stabaek 1.36 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valerenga fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Stabaek attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 41% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 32%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 53%, Stabaek 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.