Valerenga vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Valerenga and Mjondalen meet at Intility Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valerenga's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mjondalen (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Valerenga. A 0.50 PPG lead over Mjondalen (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Valerenga, 0 for Mjondalen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Valerenga half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Mjondalen half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 69% versus Mjondalen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 54% | Mjondalen 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.59 xG and Mjondalen 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.150 / defence 0.984 | Mjondalen attack 0.976 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.141. Data: 41 Valerenga games / 38 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 47% | Draw 29% | Mjondalen 24%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Mjondalen 4.17. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valerenga if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 70% | Mjondalen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 47% | Draw 29% | Mjondalen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Valerenga 1.59 / Mjondalen 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.150 / def 0.984 | Mjondalen attack 0.976 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Mjondalen xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Mjondalen kick off?
Valerenga vs Mjondalen kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 3 July 2021 at Intility Arena.
Where is Valerenga vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Mjondalen part of?
Valerenga vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 47% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Valerenga and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Mjondalen?
Record (3 meetings): Valerenga 2W | Draws 1 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Mjondalen in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Mjondalen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Mjondalen's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.98x) against Valerenga's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 41/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.45
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.69
1.10
Mjondalen xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
5%
20.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.10 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Valerenga have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 19W 13D 7L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen's form line: 10W 7D 22L from 39 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Valerenga are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valerenga have posted 2.11 PPG from 19 outings (11W 7D 1L).
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 3W 4D 12L from 19 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valerenga are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.95 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 19W 13D 7L in their last 39 games (1.79 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 10W 7D 22L in their last 39 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Mjondalen away?
Valerenga's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.11 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 4-1 on 3 Oct 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valerenga have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Valerenga
1
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 3, Mjondalen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2021, when Valerenga 2-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Mjondalen?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 74%, Mjondalen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Valerenga) and 42% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Valerenga's games and 47% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Valerenga's recent games and 42% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valerenga and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valerenga's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 14, as Valerenga and Mjondalen drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.59 xG and Mjondalen 1.10 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valerenga fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Mjondalen attack 0.98 / defence 0.85, drawn from 41/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 47% | Draw 29% | Mjondalen 24%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 54%, Mjondalen 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.