Tromso 1-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tromso and Viking meet at Alfheim Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tromso have posted 3W 4D 3L at Alfheim Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Viking have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Viking's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Viking are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Tromso, 1 for Viking and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Viking winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Tromso half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tromso 53% and Viking 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 43% | Viking 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.46 xG and Viking 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.966 / defence 1.151 | Viking attack 1.230 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.234. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Tromso games / 38 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 32% | Draw 23% | Viking 44%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 3.12 | Draw 4.35 | Viking 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 50% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 32% | Draw 23% | Viking 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Tromso 1.46 / Viking 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.966 / def 1.151 | Viking attack 1.230 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Viking (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Viking xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Viking kick off?
Tromso vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Alfheim Stadion.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Viking?
Tromso 1 - 1 Viking.
Where is Tromso vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Viking part of?
Tromso vs Viking is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 32% chance of winning, Viking a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Tromso and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Viking?
Record (2 meetings): Tromso 1W | Draws 0 | Viking 1W.
What form are Tromso and Viking in?
Tromso (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Viking (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tromso's attack rating (0.97) and Viking's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.23x) against Tromso's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
32%
3.09
23%
4.32
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.21
1.75
Viking xG
3.09
32%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
17%
5.74
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
6%
17.75
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Tromso and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Tromso and 1.75 for Viking, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tromso come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 11D 11L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.90 PPG from 30 outings (17W 6D 7L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Tromso — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Tromso's home form reads 3W 6D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.80 points per game from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.00 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 77%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Viking in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 8W 11D 11L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Viking have gone 17W 6D 7L in their last 30 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.00 PPG; Viking away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Tromso
5
Draws
3
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 2, Viking have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Tromso 1-3 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 53%, Viking 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Tromso) and 67% (Viking).
On the defensive side: Tromso keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Tromso have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Tromso's games and 60% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Tromso's recent games and 67% of Viking's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tromso and Viking tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Viking in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tromso and Viking share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 7, as Tromso and Viking drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.46 xG and Viking 1.75 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Viking attack 1.23 / defence 1.04, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 32% | Draw 23% | Viking 44%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 43%, Viking 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.