Tromso 2-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Tromso (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Tromso face Ham-Kam.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ham-Kam make the trip to Romssa Arena to face Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tromso have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Romssa Arena, Tromso have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ham-Kam (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Tromso's favour (2.20 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Tromso have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ham-Kam in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, Tromso are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Tromso winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Tromso and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Tromso — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tromso 68% and Ham-Kam 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 58% | Ham-Kam 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 2.23 xG and Ham-Kam 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.022 / defence 0.801 | Ham-Kam attack 0.991 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.750 / away 1.305. Ham-Kam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Tromso's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Tromso games / 50 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 64% | Draw 19% | Ham-Kam 16%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Ham-Kam 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Tromso (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 70% | Ham-Kam 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 64% | Draw 19% | Ham-Kam 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 58% | xG Tromso 2.23 / Ham-Kam 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.022 / def 0.801 | Ham-Kam attack 0.991 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.750 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Tromso (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Ham-Kam xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Tromso vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Tromso 2 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Tromso vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Ham-Kam part of?
Tromso vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 64% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Tromso and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Ham-Kam?
Record (3 meetings): Tromso 3W | Draws 0 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Tromso and Ham-Kam in?
Tromso (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tromso's attack rating (1.02) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.99x) against Tromso's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
64%
1.56
19%
5.19
16%
6.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.26
1.03
Ham-Kam xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
6.09
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
11%
9.26
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
2%
56.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Tromso and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Tromso and 1.03 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tromso's recent record stands at 23W 16D 11L from 50 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 22L across 50 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tromso by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ham-Kam heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tromso have managed 14W 7D 3L from 24 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ham-Kam's away record stands at 4W 7D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.24 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Ham-Kam in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 23W 16D 11L in their last 50 games (1.70 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 13W 15D 22L in their last 50 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Ham-Kam away?
Tromso's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 2.04 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 1-4 on 18 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Tromso
2
Draws
0
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Tromso have won 7, Ham-Kam have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Ham-Kam 1-4 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Ham-Kam?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Tromso, 71% for Ham-Kam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Tromso and 71% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Tromso's games and 71% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Tromso's matches and 71% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Tromso and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Ham-Kam 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Ham-Kam 2-1 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 2.23 xG and Ham-Kam 1.03 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.02 / defence 0.80 against Ham-Kam attack 0.99 / defence 1.25, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 64% | Draw 19% | Ham-Kam 16%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 58%, Ham-Kam 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.