Tromso 0-5 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tromso at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brann make the trip to Romssa Arena to face Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Tromso (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Tromso's home record at Romssa Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Romssa Arena.
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brann's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Tromso. A 0.50 PPG lead over Brann (2.10 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Brann hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Tromso winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Brann have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 43% versus Brann 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 53% | Brann 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 2.02 xG and Brann 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.227 / defence 0.630 | Brann attack 1.440 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.200. Brann have an above-average attack strength of 1.440 — the away xG of 1.09 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Tromso's defence rating of 0.630 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Tromso games / 36 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 58% | Draw 23% | Brann 19%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Brann 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Tromso (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Brann lead the H2H ledger, but Tromso carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tromso at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Tromso 40% | Brann 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 58% | Draw 23% | Brann 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Tromso 2.02 / Brann 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.227 / def 0.630 | Brann attack 1.440 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Tromso (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Brann xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Brann kick off?
Tromso vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Brann?
Tromso 0 - 5 Brann.
Where is Tromso vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Brann part of?
Tromso vs Brann is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 58% chance of winning, Brann a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Tromso and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Brann?
Record (9 meetings): Tromso 2W | Draws 2 | Brann 5W.
What form are Tromso and Brann in?
Tromso (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tromso's attack rating (1.23) and Brann's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.44x) against Tromso's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.33
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.11
1.09
Brann xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
3%
39.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Tromso and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Tromso and 1.09 for Brann, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tromso's recent record stands at 27W 9D 24L from 60 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Brann, meanwhile, have gone 34W 13D 13L across 60 games — 1.92 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Brann by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tromso heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tromso have managed 15W 5D 10L from 30 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brann's away record stands at 15W 7D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.83 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 62%.
Defensively: Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Brann in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 27W 9D 24L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Brann have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.67 PPG; Brann away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Tromso or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Brann in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 0-5 on 29 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Tromso
2
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 2, Brann have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Tromso 0-5 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 43%, Brann 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Tromso and 73% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Tromso's recent matches and 60% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tromso vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Tromso's matches and 73% of Brann's.
Do Tromso and Brann tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Brann in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Brann run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Tromso.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Tromso 0-5 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 2.02 xG and Brann 1.09 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Tromso fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Brann outscored their 1.09 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.23 / defence 0.63 against Brann attack 1.44 / defence 1.02, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 58% | Draw 23% | Brann 19%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Brann win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 53%, Brann 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.