Stromsgodset 3-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Rosenborg at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stromsgodset 0.70 PPG, Rosenborg 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Stromsgodset have won 1, Rosenborg 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 58% and Rosenborg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stromsgodset 62% | Rosenborg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.31 xG and Rosenborg 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.849 / defence 1.459 | Rosenborg attack 1.087 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.265. Data: 34 Stromsgodset games / 34 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 25% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 54%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 4.00 | Draw 4.55 | Rosenborg 1.85. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 50% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 25% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Stromsgodset 1.31 / Rosenborg 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.849 / def 1.459 | Rosenborg attack 1.087 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Rosenborg xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Stromsgodset 3 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg part of?
Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 25% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 54% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Stromsgodset and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
Record (2 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 0W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (0.85) and Rosenborg's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
25%
4.03
22%
4.63
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.31
2.01
Rosenborg xG
4.03
25%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
13%
7.43
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
3%
29.99
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 2.01 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset come into this having played 60 games, going 16W 19D 25L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.67 PPG from 60 outings (28W 16D 16L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stromsgodset's home form reads 11W 10D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.80 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 16W 19D 25L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 28W 16D 16L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Rosenborg away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.43 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Rosenborg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 4, Rosenborg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Rosenborg 6-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 60%, Rosenborg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Stromsgodset and 63% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Stromsgodset's games and 60% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Stromsgodset's matches and 63% of Rosenborg's.
Do Stromsgodset and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stromsgodset run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Rosenborg 3-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.31 xG and Rosenborg 2.01 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rosenborg landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.85 / defence 1.46 against Rosenborg attack 1.09 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 25% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 54%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Stromsgodset win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 62%, Rosenborg 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Stromsgodset winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.