Stromsgodset 6-0 jerv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs jerv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 19 as Stromsgodset welcome jerv to Marienlyst Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Marienlyst Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
jerv — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for jerv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
jerv's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 7L across 9 road games this term (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Stromsgodset carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stromsgodset, 1 for jerv and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with jerv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
jerv in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 42% versus jerv 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 63% | jerv 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.44 xG and jerv 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.079 / defence 0.916 | jerv attack 0.726 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.356. jerv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing Stromsgodset's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Stromsgodset games / 18 jerv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 71% | Draw 17% | jerv 12%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | jerv 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 50% | jerv 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs jerv | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 71% | Draw 17% | jerv 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 54% | xG Stromsgodset 2.44 / jerv 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.079 / def 0.916 | jerv attack 0.726 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
0.90
jerv xG
54%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs jerv kick off?
Stromsgodset vs jerv kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs jerv?
Stromsgodset 6 - 0 jerv.
Where is Stromsgodset vs jerv being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs jerv part of?
Stromsgodset vs jerv is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs jerv?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 71% chance of winning, jerv a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs jerv?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stromsgodset and jerv will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs jerv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and jerv?
Record (1 meetings): Stromsgodset 0W | Draws 0 | jerv 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and jerv in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. jerv (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 1.08x the league average against jerv's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, jerv's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
71%
1.40
17%
5.96
12%
8.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.34
0.90
jerv xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.96
17%
Draw
8.37
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
9%
11.52
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
1%
96.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs jerv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and jerv expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 0.90 for jerv, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs jerv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 7W 6D 6L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
jerv's form line: 4W 3D 12L from 19 games, 0.79 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for jerv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Stromsgodset are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against jerv.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Stromsgodset are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, jerv have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away games — 0.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of jerv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; jerv are on 0.95 scored and 2.21 conceded.
Defensively: Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
jerv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and jerv in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 7W 6D 6L in their last 19 games (1.42 PPG), while jerv have gone 4W 3D 12L in their last 19 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or jerv away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.89 PPG; jerv away: 0.22 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or jerv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, jerv in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Stromsgodset
0
Draws
1
jerv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and jerv?
From 2 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 1, jerv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and jerv last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2022, when Stromsgodset 6-0 jerv.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
jerv see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 56%, jerv 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Stromsgodset and 78% for jerv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; jerv in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / jerv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play jerv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Stromsgodset's games and 56% of jerv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs jerv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Stromsgodset's matches and 78% of jerv's.
Do Stromsgodset and jerv tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, jerv in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stromsgodset run riot with a 6-0 hammering of jerv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat jerv 6-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.44 xG and jerv 0.90 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. jerv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against jerv attack 0.73 / defence 1.34, drawn from 47/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 71% | Draw 17% | jerv 12%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 63%, jerv 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
jerv's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stromsgodset arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. jerv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.