Stromsgodset 2-0 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stromsgodset face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 June 2023, 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Stromsgodset's home record at Marienlyst Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodo/Glimt are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Stromsgodset have won 0, Bodo/Glimt 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 2–4 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 53% versus Bodo/Glimt 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 65% | Bodo/Glimt 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.04 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.774 / defence 0.979 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.453 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.281. Stromsgodset's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Stromsgodset games / 41 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 21% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 55%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Bodo/Glimt 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 70% | Bodo/Glimt 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jun 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 21% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Stromsgodset 1.04 / Bodo/Glimt 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.774 / def 0.979 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.453 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Bodo/Glimt xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 25 June 2023 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Stromsgodset 2 - 0 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 21% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (4 meetings): Stromsgodset 0W | Draws 2 | Bodo/Glimt 2W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 0.77x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
21%
4.77
24%
4.23
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.86
1.82
Bodo/Glimt xG
4.77
21%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
3%
29.48
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.82 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 15D 27L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.05 PPG from 60 outings (36W 15D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stromsgodset's home form reads 15W 6D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Stromsgodset are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 1.97 points per game from 30 outings (18W 5D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.42 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 15D 9L in their last 60 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.70 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jun 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Stromsgodset
2
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 0-5 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 63%, Bodo/Glimt 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Stromsgodset and 60% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Stromsgodset's games and 57% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Stromsgodset's matches and 60% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bodo/Glimt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Bodo/Glimt 2-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.04 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.82 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.77 / defence 0.98 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.45 / defence 0.78, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 21% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 55%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Stromsgodset win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 65%, Bodo/Glimt 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Stromsgodset winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.