Start 1-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Start at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Start vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Start host Viking at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Start — All Games: 0W 2D 3L from 5 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Start have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Start's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 games at Sparebanken Sør Arena this term (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 3.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 1W 1D 3L from 5 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Viking have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Start at 0.40 PPG versus Viking's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Start register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Viking in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Start in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Viking in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Start 60% and Viking 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Start 80% | Viking 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 1.61 xG and Viking 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 0.903 / defence 1.614 | Viking attack 0.634 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.531. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Start's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Start games / 5 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Start 39% | Draw 24% | Viking 37%. Fair-value odds: Start 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Viking 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Start are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Start offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Start 67% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Sparebanken Sør Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 39% | Draw 24% | Viking 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Start 1.61 / Viking 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 0.903 / def 1.614 | Viking attack 0.634 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.531 • Poisson stance: Start (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Start xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Viking xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs Viking kick off?
Start vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 4 July 2020 at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What was the final score in Start vs Viking?
Start 1 - 1 Viking.
Where is Start vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What competition is Start vs Viking part of?
Start vs Viking is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Start a 39% chance of winning, Viking a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Start the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Start and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Start and Viking in?
Start (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Viking (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Start's attack rating (0.90) and Viking's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Start's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Start Win
39%
2.55
24%
4.25
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Start xG
Total xG
3.18
1.57
Viking xG
2.55
39%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
8%
12.23
7%
13.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Start and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Start and 1.57 for Viking, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Start's recent record stands at 0W 2D 3L from 5 games, a 0.40 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Start, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Viking, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Start heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Start are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Start have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Viking in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Early Season
Viking
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Start and Viking in coming into this match?
Start have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 games (0.40 PPG), while Viking have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Start and Viking runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2020, when Viking won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Start's record when hosting Viking specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Start
1
Draws
3
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Viking?
From 4 meetings on record, Start have won 0, Viking have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Start and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Start 0-3 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Start and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Start 60%, Viking 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Start and 60% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Start have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Start play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Start's games and 60% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Start vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Start's matches and 60% of Viking's.
Do Start and Viking tend to score early?
Start have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Viking in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Start and Viking share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Start and Viking finished level at 1-1 at Sparebanken Sør Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Start 1.61 xG and Viking 1.57 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Start attack 0.90 / defence 1.61 against Viking attack 0.63 / defence 1.39, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Start 39% | Draw 24% | Viking 37%, with Start to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Start 80%, Viking 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Start's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Start conceded 1 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line. Viking conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.