Stabaek 0-3 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Nadderud Stadion to face Stabaek in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Monday 14 June 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Stabaek (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Nadderud Stadion, Stabaek have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.50 xG and Tromso 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 1.016 / defence 1.001 | Tromso attack 0.777 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.188. Data: 34 Stabaek games / 6 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 49% | Draw 29% | Tromso 22%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Tromso 4.55. Stabaek hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stabaek as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stabaek if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 14 Jun 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 49% | Draw 29% | Tromso 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Stabaek 1.50 / Tromso 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 1.016 / def 1.001 | Tromso attack 0.777 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Tromso xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Tromso kick off?
Stabaek vs Tromso kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 14 June 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Tromso?
Stabaek 0 - 3 Tromso.
Where is Stabaek vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Tromso part of?
Stabaek vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 49% chance of winning, Tromso a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stabaek and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Tromso?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stabaek and Tromso in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Stabaek home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stabaek's attack at 1.02x the league average against Tromso's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.78x) against Stabaek's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 34/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.46
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.42
0.92
Tromso xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
5%
20.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Stabaek and 0.92 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Pre-Season
Tromso
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 0-3 on 14 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Stabaek
1
Draws
3
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Tromso?
From 4 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 0, Tromso have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2023, when Stabaek 0-1 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Tromso run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Stabaek 0-3 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.50 xG and Tromso 0.92 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Tromso outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Tromso attack 0.78 / defence 0.92, drawn from 34/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 49% | Draw 29% | Tromso 22%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Tromso win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.