Stabaek 2-0 Start – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stabaek at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Start fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stabaek host Start at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 September 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stabaek — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's home record at Nadderud Stadion: 3W 3D 3L from 9 Eliteserien appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Start stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Start have posted 0W 2D 6L from 8 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stabaek 1.00 PPG, Start 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Stabaek have won 0, Start 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2020, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Stabaek in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Start in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 56% versus Start 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 56% | Start 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.64 xG and Start 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.721 / defence 1.072 | Start attack 0.653 / defence 1.624. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.414. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.624 — this is suppressing Stabaek's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Stabaek games / 18 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 53% | Draw 25% | Start 23%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Start 4.35. Stabaek hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stabaek at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stabaek offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Stabaek 33% | Start 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Sep 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 53% | Draw 25% | Start 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Stabaek 1.64 / Start 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.721 / def 1.072 | Start attack 0.653 / def 1.624 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Start xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Start kick off?
Stabaek vs Start kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 27 September 2020 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Start?
Stabaek 2 - 0 Start.
Where is Stabaek vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Start part of?
Stabaek vs Start is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 53% chance of winning, Start a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Start?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stabaek and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Start?
Record (1 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 1 | Start 0W.
What form are Stabaek and Start in?
Stabaek (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Start (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.72) and Start's defence rating (1.62), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Start's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
53%
1.90
25%
4.06
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.63
0.99
Start xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
20%
5.13
4%
22.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Start expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Stabaek and 0.99 for Start, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Start?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 5W 7D 6L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Start's form line: 3W 6D 9L from 18 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stabaek on 1.22 PPG, Start on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
On the road, Start have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Start's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stabaek come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stabaek are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Start are on 1.06 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Start
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Start in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while Start have gone 3W 6D 9L in their last 18 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Start away?
Stabaek's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.38 PPG; Start away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 September 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Stabaek
1
Draws
0
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Start?
From 2 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Start have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Start last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2020, when Stabaek 2-0 Start.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Start?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 38%, Start 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Stabaek) and 62% (Start).
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 38% of games; Start in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Start?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Stabaek's recent matches and 50% of Start's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Stabaek's recent games and 62% of Start's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Start tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Start in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stabaek cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Start.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Start 2-0 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.64 xG and Start 0.99 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Start landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.72 / defence 1.07 against Start attack 0.65 / defence 1.62, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 53% | Draw 25% | Start 23%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 56%, Start 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Start's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 1.22 PPG, Start 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stabaek win broke the near-deadlock. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Start (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.