Stabaek 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 42%, yet in-form Stabaek provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nadderud Stadion plays host to Stabaek versus Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Thursday 16 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stabaek have collected 1.57 PPG across 7 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Stabaek have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stabaek have posted 2W 1D 1L at Nadderud Stadion — 1.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Nadderud Stadion.
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 2W 0D 5L across 7 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.86 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sarpsborg 08 FF have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Stabaek's 1.57 PPG return is 0.71 points per game ahead of Sarpsborg 08 FF's 0.86 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 43% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 57% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 0.96 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.786 / defence 0.941 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.861 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.490. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Stabaek games / 7 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 29% | Draw 29% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stabaek (1.57 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 0% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 29% | Draw 29% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Stabaek 0.96 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.786 / def 0.941 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.861 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 16 July 2020 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Stabaek 1 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 29% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.43 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-0D-5L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.14 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.86x) against Stabaek's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
29%
3.43
29%
3.44
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.17
1.21
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.8 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.21 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stabaek's recent record stands at 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stabaek, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 5L across 7 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stabaek by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stabaek have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Stabaek are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stabaek come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stabaek are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.00 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 29%.
Defensively: Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Early Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Stabaek's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 2.00 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 3 Oct 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
3
Draws
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Stabaek) and 33% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stabaek) and 67% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%; Stabaek have failed to score in 33% of games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Stabaek's recent matches and 33% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stabaek's recent games and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek and Sarpsborg 08 FF finished level at 1-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 0.96 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.21 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.79 / defence 0.94 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.86 / defence 0.99, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 29% | Draw 29% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 57%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stabaek arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.