Stabaek vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 37%, yet in-form Stabaek provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stabaek vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Mjondalen travel to Nadderud Stadion to take on Stabaek. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Nadderud Stadion, Stabaek have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Stabaek carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Stabaek, 0 for Mjondalen and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Stabaek trading profile (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Mjondalen trading profile (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 55% versus Mjondalen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 61% | Mjondalen 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.21 xG and Mjondalen 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.653 / defence 1.260 | Mjondalen attack 0.812 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.303. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Stabaek games / 51 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 31% | Draw 32% | Mjondalen 37%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Mjondalen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjondalen at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stabaek (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 40% | Mjondalen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 31% | Draw 32% | Mjondalen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Stabaek 1.21 / Mjondalen 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.653 / def 1.260 | Mjondalen attack 0.812 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Mjondalen xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Mjondalen kick off?
Stabaek vs Mjondalen kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
Where is Stabaek vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Mjondalen part of?
Stabaek vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 31% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stabaek and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Mjondalen?
Record (4 meetings): Stabaek 2W | Draws 2 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Stabaek and Mjondalen in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.65) and Mjondalen's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
31%
3.21
32%
3.15
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.54
1.33
Mjondalen xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
8%
12.16
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.33 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 13W 17D 21L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen's form line: 11W 11D 29L from 51 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stabaek on 1.10 PPG, Mjondalen on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.08 PPG from 24 outings (6W 8D 10L).
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 3W 6D 15L from 24 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stabaek come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.02 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 13W 17D 21L in their last 51 games (1.10 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 11W 11D 29L in their last 51 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Mjondalen away?
Stabaek's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.08 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stabaek and Mjondalen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stabaek's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stabaek
2
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 2, Mjondalen have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2021, when Stabaek 1-1 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Mjondalen?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 46%, Mjondalen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stabaek) and 46% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 38% of games; Mjondalen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Mjondalen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stabaek's recent matches and 58% of Mjondalen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stabaek's recent games and 46% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stabaek's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Stabaek and Mjondalen drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.21 xG and Mjondalen 1.33 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.65 / defence 1.26 against Mjondalen attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 31% | Draw 32% | Mjondalen 37%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 61%, Mjondalen 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjondalen's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 1.10 PPG, Mjondalen 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.