Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 55% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Viking away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 70% of Viking's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Viking, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2024, ended Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 Viking — a Viking win.
Viking have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% and Viking 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 69% | Viking 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sarpsborg 08 FF surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Viking have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 xG and Viking 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.816 / defence 1.279 | Viking attack 1.382 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.227. Viking have an above-average attack rating of 1.382, which lifts their away xG to 2.17. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating of 1.279 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Viking's projected output up. Data: built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 55 games and Viking's last 55.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 24% | Draw 21% | Viking 55%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 4.09 | Draw 4.87 | Viking 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Viking (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.40 / 2.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Viking 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% (last 10 home games) | Viking 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 26 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 24% | Draw 21% | Viking 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 / Viking 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.816 / def 1.279 | Viking attack 1.382 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Viking (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Viking xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking FAQs
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 2 Viking.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 26) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 24% chance of winning, Viking a 55% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.82) and Viking's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.38x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 2.17.
These ratings are built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 55 games and Viking's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 1-3 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
24%
4.09
21%
4.87
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
1 – 3
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.57
2.17
Viking xG
4.09
24%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
11%
8.76
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
3%
35.82
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 2.17 for Viking, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 20W 10D 25L from 55 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 30W 12D 13L across 55 games — 1.85 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 11W 4D 12L from their last 27 home games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 12W 6D 9L across their last 27 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.00 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Viking in 64%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Viking
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF (Home) vs Viking (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking Form FAQs
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 20W 10D 25L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Viking have gone 30W 12D 13L in their last 55 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.37 PPG; Viking away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
Draws
6
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Viking have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Viking 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, Viking 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 63% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 56% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 63% of Viking's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 74% of Viking's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 xG and Viking 2.17 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.82 / defence 1.28 against Viking attack 1.38 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 24% | Draw 21% | Viking 55%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 69%, Viking 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.