Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF host Stromsgodset at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record at Sarpsborg Stadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.50 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, Stromsgodset 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–5 with Stromsgodset winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% versus Stromsgodset 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Stromsgodset 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.73 xG and Stromsgodset 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.948 / defence 0.918 | Stromsgodset attack 0.603 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.807 / away 1.219. Data: 54 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 54 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 61% | Draw 28% | Stromsgodset 12%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.64 | Draw 3.57 | Stromsgodset 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (61%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% | Stromsgodset 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 61% | Draw 28% | Stromsgodset 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.73 / Stromsgodset 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.948 / def 0.918 | Stromsgodset attack 0.603 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.807 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Stromsgodset xG
43%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 61% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 12% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset?
Record (2 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 0 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
61%
1.65
28%
3.61
12%
8.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.41
0.68
Stromsgodset xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
8.49
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
2%
48.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 10.5 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.68 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 16W 13D 25L from 54 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 23L across 54 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.13 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 11W 7D 9L from 27 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 5W 7D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.35 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 16W 13D 25L in their last 54 games (1.13 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 15W 16D 23L in their last 54 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Stromsgodset away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.48 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Stromsgodset go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Stromsgodset won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
Draws
8
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 41%, Stromsgodset 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 59% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 30% of games; Stromsgodset in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 52% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 59% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stromsgodset finished level at 0-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.73 xG and Stromsgodset 0.68 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Stromsgodset attack 0.60 / defence 1.01, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 61% | Draw 28% | Stromsgodset 12%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%, Stromsgodset 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.13 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.