Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-1 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 July 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rosenborg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sarpsborg 08 FF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Rosenborg in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for Rosenborg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 5–2 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% and Rosenborg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 72% | Rosenborg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.63 xG and Rosenborg 2.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.846 / defence 1.392 | Rosenborg attack 1.085 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.464. Rosenborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 43 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 28% | Draw 21% | Rosenborg 51%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.57 | Draw 4.76 | Rosenborg 1.96. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 2.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Jul 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 28% | Draw 21% | Rosenborg 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 72% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.63 / Rosenborg 2.21 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.846 / def 1.392 | Rosenborg attack 1.085 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
2.21
Rosenborg xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 12 July 2024 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 4 - 1 Rosenborg.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 28% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 51% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
Record (5 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 3W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.08x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 2.21.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
28%
3.51
21%
4.85
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.84
2.21
Rosenborg xG
3.51
28%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.54
Clean Sheet
11%
9.12
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
3%
32.07
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 2.21 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 43 games, going 16W 6D 21L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.30 PPG from 43 outings (16W 8D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.30 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 9W 2D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (5W 4D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.51 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 16W 6D 21L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 16W 8D 19L in their last 43 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Rosenborg away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.38 PPG; Rosenborg away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 on 25 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, Rosenborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 67% for Rosenborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 76% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 67% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 76% of Rosenborg's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Rosenborg 4-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.63 xG and Rosenborg 2.21 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rosenborg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.39 against Rosenborg attack 1.08 / defence 1.38, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 28% | Draw 21% | Rosenborg 51%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Sarpsborg 08 FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 72%, Rosenborg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.26 PPG, Rosenborg 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.