Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-0 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF host Mjondalen at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record at Sarpsborg Stadion: 4W 1D 4L from 9 Eliteserien appearances (1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's away record: 2W 2D 5L from 9 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Sarpsborg 08 FF have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for Mjondalen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2020, ended 0–1 with Mjondalen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Mjondalen trading profile (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 35% versus Mjondalen 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% | Mjondalen 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.50 xG and Mjondalen 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.764 / defence 0.946 | Mjondalen attack 0.635 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.449. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mjondalen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.378 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 17 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 22%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Mjondalen 4.55. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 22% | Mjondalen 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.50 / Mjondalen 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.764 / def 0.946 | Mjondalen attack 0.635 / def 1.378 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Mjondalen xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 19 September 2020 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 - 0 Mjondalen.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 52% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen?
Record (1 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.76) and Mjondalen's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.83
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.37
0.87
Mjondalen xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
5%
20.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.87 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 6W 2D 9L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen's form line: 4W 2D 11L from 17 games, 0.82 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.18 PPG, Mjondalen on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L).
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.76 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 6W 2D 9L in their last 17 games (1.18 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 4W 2D 11L in their last 17 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Mjondalen away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.44 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Mjondalen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mjondalen in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
1
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Mjondalen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 28 November 2021, when Mjondalen 1-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Mjondalen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 22%, Mjondalen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 56% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 44% of games; Mjondalen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Mjondalen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 56% of Mjondalen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 56% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mjondalen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Mjondalen 2-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.50 xG and Mjondalen 0.87 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mjondalen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.76 / defence 0.95 against Mjondalen attack 0.64 / defence 1.38, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 22%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 53%, Mjondalen 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mjondalen's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.18 PPG, Mjondalen 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.