Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-2 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 39%, yet in-form Lillestrom provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 July 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lillestrom (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lillestrom are 1.10 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lillestrom in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 2 for Lillestrom and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Lillestrom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 62% and Lillestrom 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% | Lillestrom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.67 xG and Lillestrom 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.079 / defence 1.027 | Lillestrom attack 1.188 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.363. Data: 45 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 45 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 23% | Lillestrom 38%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Lillestrom 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lillestrom (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% | Lillestrom 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 23% | Lillestrom 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.67 / Lillestrom 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.079 / def 1.027 | Lillestrom attack 1.188 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Lillestrom xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 2 Lillestrom.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 39% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom?
Record (3 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 2W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.19x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
39%
2.58
23%
4.37
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.34
1.66
Lillestrom xG
2.58
39%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
19%
5.27
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
7%
13.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.66 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 45 games, going 17W 7D 21L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.82 PPG from 45 outings (24W 10D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 9W 6D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.61 points per game from 23 outings (10W 7D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.73 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Lillestrom in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 7D 21L in their last 45 games (1.29 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 24W 10D 11L in their last 45 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.43 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
4
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Lillestrom have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lillestrom 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 83% for Lillestrom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 78% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 83% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 78% of Lillestrom's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.67 xG and Lillestrom 1.66 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Lillestrom attack 1.19 / defence 0.95, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 23% | Lillestrom 38%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lillestrom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%, Lillestrom 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Lillestrom's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lillestrom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.