Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sarpsborg 08 FF face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sarpsborg Stadion plays host to Sarpsborg 08 FF versus Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 28 June 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 6W 1D 3L at Sarpsborg Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sarpsborg 08 FF register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Bodo/Glimt in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Bodo/Glimt, who have claimed 5 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% and Bodo/Glimt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Bodo/Glimt 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.94 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.835 / defence 1.443 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.308 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.513. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — the away xG of 2.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 42 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 9% | Draw 14% | Bodo/Glimt 77%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 11.11 | Draw 7.14 | Bodo/Glimt 1.30. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (77%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 90% | Bodo/Glimt 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jun 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 9% | Draw 14% | Bodo/Glimt 77% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 57% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.94 / Bodo/Glimt 2.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.835 / def 1.443 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.308 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.513 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
2.86
Bodo/Glimt xG
57%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 June 2024 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 9% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 77% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (5 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 5W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.83x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.31x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 2.86.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
9%
10.58
14%
7.28
77%
1.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.79
2.86
Bodo/Glimt xG
10.58
9%
Home win
7.28
14%
Draw
1.30
77%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
6%
17.39
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
1%
184.04
30%
3.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.6 |
| 1 | 2.1 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 2.86 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 10D 26L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.17 PPG from 60 outings (40W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 14W 5D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.07 points per game from 30 outings (20W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.73 scored and 1.32 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 24W 10D 26L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 10D 10L in their last 60 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.57 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 6-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 67% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 73% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 67% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 73% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.94 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.86 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.83 / defence 1.44 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.31 / defence 0.82, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 9% | Draw 14% | Bodo/Glimt 77%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 77%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, Bodo/Glimt 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.