Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sarpsborg 08 FF (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sarpsborg 08 FF face Aalesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sarpsborg Stadion plays host to Sarpsborg 08 FF versus Aalesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 25 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 5W 2D 3L at Sarpsborg Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.70. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's away record: 2W 3D 4L from 9 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Sarpsborg 08 FF's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Sarpsborg 08 FF 4W, Aalesund 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Aalesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Aalesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% and Aalesund 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Aalesund 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.67 xG and Aalesund 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.828 / defence 0.822 | Aalesund attack 0.787 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Data: 48 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 18 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 55% | Draw 24% | Aalesund 20%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Aalesund 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Aalesund 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 55% | Draw 24% | Aalesund 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.67 / Aalesund 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.828 / def 0.822 | Aalesund attack 0.787 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Aalesund xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 55% chance of winning, Aalesund a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund?
Record (6 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 4W | Draws 0 | Aalesund 2W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.79x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.08
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.59
0.92
Aalesund xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
4%
26.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.92 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 20 games, going 8W 5D 7L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 0.90 PPG from 20 outings (3W 9D 8L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Aalesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 5W 2D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Sarpsborg 08 FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund in 80%.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 5D 7L in their last 20 games (1.45 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 3W 9D 8L in their last 20 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Aalesund away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.89 PPG; Aalesund away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Aalesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Aalesund in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 2 Aug 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
Draws
2
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Aalesund have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when Aalesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 56%, Aalesund 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 56% (Aalesund).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Aalesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 67% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 56% of Aalesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.