Rosenborg 0-2 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host Valerenga at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Valerenga have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rosenborg 0.90 PPG, Valerenga 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Rosenborg hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Valerenga, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Rosenborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Rosenborg and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (29 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Valerenga in-play tendencies (29 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 48% versus Valerenga 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 48% | Valerenga 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.18 xG and Valerenga 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.065 / defence 0.954 | Valerenga attack 0.986 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.882 / away 1.245. Data: 31 Rosenborg games / 30 Valerenga games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 60% | Draw 20% | Valerenga 20%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Valerenga 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 60% | Draw 20% | Valerenga 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Rosenborg 2.18 / Valerenga 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.065 / def 0.954 | Valerenga attack 0.986 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.882 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Valerenga xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Valerenga kick off?
Rosenborg vs Valerenga kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Rosenborg 0 - 2 Valerenga.
Where is Rosenborg vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Valerenga part of?
Rosenborg vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 60% chance of winning, Valerenga a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rosenborg and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Valerenga?
Record (9 meetings): Rosenborg 5W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 2W.
What form are Rosenborg and Valerenga in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Valerenga (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
60%
1.66
20%
4.99
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.36
1.17
Valerenga xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
11%
8.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
2%
45.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.17 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 10W 9D 10L from 29 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 13L across 29 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.34 PPG, Valerenga on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 7W 6D 2L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Valerenga's away record stands at 4W 1D 10L across 15 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rosenborg are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.59 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 66%.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 10W 9D 10L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 12W 4D 13L in their last 29 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Valerenga away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.80 PPG; Valerenga away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Valerenga in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
2
Draws
3
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Valerenga have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Rosenborg 0-2 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Valerenga?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 53%, Valerenga 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Rosenborg) and 53% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Rosenborg's games and 60% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Rosenborg's recent games and 53% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and Valerenga tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Rosenborg 0-2 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.18 xG and Valerenga 1.17 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Valerenga outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.06 / defence 0.95 against Valerenga attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 31/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 60% | Draw 20% | Valerenga 20%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Valerenga win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 48%, Valerenga 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Valerenga's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.34 PPG, Valerenga 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.