Rosenborg 3-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Stromsgodset travel to Lerkendal Stadion to take on Rosenborg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 July 2020, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 2W 2D 2L from 6 Eliteserien matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rosenborg have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rosenborg's home record at Lerkendal Stadion: 0W 2D 1L from 3 Eliteserien appearances (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.33 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lerkendal Stadion this season.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 2W 3D 1L from 6 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stromsgodset have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stromsgodset's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.33 PPG (Rosenborg) versus 1.50 (Stromsgodset). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Stromsgodset in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Rosenborg trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Stromsgodset trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 50% versus Stromsgodset 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 50% | Stromsgodset 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.46 xG and Stromsgodset 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.807 / defence 1.017 | Stromsgodset attack 0.846 / defence 1.451. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.596. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.451 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Rosenborg games / 6 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 39% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 36%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Stromsgodset 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 67% | Stromsgodset 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jul 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 39% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Rosenborg 1.46 / Stromsgodset 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.807 / def 1.017 | Stromsgodset attack 0.846 / def 1.451 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.596 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Stromsgodset xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 11 July 2020 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Rosenborg 3 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset part of?
Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 39% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rosenborg and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (0.81) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
39%
2.54
25%
3.99
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.83
1.37
Stromsgodset xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.37 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 2W 2D 2L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rosenborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stromsgodset's form line: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Stromsgodset, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.33 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L). That actually lags their 1.33 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Early Season
Stromsgodset
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Stromsgodset away?
Stromsgodset's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 0.67 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Rosenborg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
1
Draws
4
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Rosenborg 6-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rosenborg at 67%, Stromsgodset at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Rosenborg) and 67% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rosenborg have failed to score in 33% of games; Stromsgodset in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rosenborg's games and 67% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Rosenborg's recent games and 67% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Stromsgodset 3-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.46 xG and Stromsgodset 1.37 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stromsgodset landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Stromsgodset attack 0.85 / defence 1.45, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 39% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 36%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 50%, Stromsgodset 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.33 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.