Rosenborg 3-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 11 as Rosenborg welcome Kristiansund BK to Lerkendal Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 June 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rosenborg have posted 5W 4D 1L at Lerkendal Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Kristiansund BK have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rosenborg at 1.10 PPG versus Kristiansund BK's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Rosenborg have won 1, Kristiansund BK 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 62% and Kristiansund BK 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 68% | Kristiansund BK 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.87 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.175 / defence 0.839 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.655 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.474. Data: 40 Rosenborg games / 38 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 62% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 16%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Kristiansund BK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 60% | Kristiansund BK 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jun 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 62% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 47% | xG Rosenborg 1.87 / Kristiansund BK 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.175 / def 0.839 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.655 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Kristiansund BK xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 25 June 2022 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Rosenborg 3 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 62% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
Record (3 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.18x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.50
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.68
0.81
Kristiansund BK xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
2%
41.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.81 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 28W 16D 16L from 60 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 18L across 60 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.67 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 18W 7D 5L from 30 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 9W 10D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.63 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Kristiansund BK in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 28W 16D 16L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 26W 16D 18L in their last 60 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.03 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2024, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
3
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Rosenborg 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 63%, Kristiansund BK 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Rosenborg and 67% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kristiansund BK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Rosenborg's games and 63% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Rosenborg's matches and 67% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Kristiansund BK 3-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.87 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.81 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.18 / defence 0.84 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.66 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 62% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 16%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 68%, Kristiansund BK 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.67 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.