Rosenborg 1-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rosenborg (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rosenborg face Kristiansund BK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 17 as Rosenborg welcome Kristiansund BK to Lerkendal Stadion. Kick-off is set for Thursday 1 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rosenborg have posted 7W 2D 1L at Lerkendal Stadion — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Kristiansund BK have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Rosenborg have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Rosenborg hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Kristiansund BK, with 2 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 4–0 with Rosenborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Rosenborg and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 62% versus Kristiansund BK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 66% | Kristiansund BK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.43 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.805 / defence 0.716 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.998 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.373. Rosenborg's defence rating of 0.716 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Rosenborg games / 35 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 48% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 26%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Kristiansund BK 3.85. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 60% | Kristiansund BK 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 48% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Rosenborg 1.43 / Kristiansund BK 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.805 / def 0.716 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.998 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Kristiansund BK xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 1 May 2025 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Rosenborg 1 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 48% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
Record (7 meetings): Rosenborg 4W | Draws 2 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 0.81x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
48%
2.11
27%
3.75
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.41
0.98
Kristiansund BK xG
2.11
48%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
6%
16.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.98 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 17W 5D 10L from 32 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 13L across 32 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 10W 2D 4L from 16 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 4W 4D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.06 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 17W 5D 10L in their last 32 games (1.75 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 9W 10D 13L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.00 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2024, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
3
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Rosenborg 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 62%, Kristiansund BK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Rosenborg) and 38% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Kristiansund BK in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 44% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Rosenborg's recent games and 38% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK finished level at 1-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.43 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.98 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.81 / defence 0.72 against Kristiansund BK attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 48% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 26%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 66%, Kristiansund BK 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.