Rosenborg 1-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Haugesund travel to Lerkendal Stadion to take on Rosenborg. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 16 May 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rosenborg 1.90 PPG, Haugesund 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Rosenborg, 1 for Haugesund and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Haugesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 70% and Haugesund 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 77% | Haugesund 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.49 xG and Haugesund 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.840 / defence 1.148 | Haugesund attack 0.680 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.215. Data: 37 Rosenborg games / 36 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 47% | Draw 31% | Haugesund 22%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Haugesund 4.55. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rosenborg 70% | Haugesund 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 47% | Draw 31% | Haugesund 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Rosenborg 1.49 / Haugesund 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.840 / def 1.148 | Haugesund attack 0.680 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Haugesund xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Haugesund kick off?
Rosenborg vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 16 May 2023 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Rosenborg 1 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Rosenborg vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Haugesund part of?
Rosenborg vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 47% chance of winning, Haugesund a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rosenborg and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Haugesund?
Record (4 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 3 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Haugesund in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (0.84) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
47%
2.12
31%
3.21
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.44
0.95
Haugesund xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
5%
20.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.95 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg come into this having played 60 games, going 29W 17D 14L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.22 PPG from 60 outings (19W 16D 25L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rosenborg's home form reads 20W 6D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.80 points per game from 30 outings (5W 9D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.47 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Haugesund in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 29W 17D 14L in their last 60 games (1.73 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Haugesund away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.20 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Rosenborg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Rosenborg
3
Draws
1
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 6, Haugesund have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Haugesund 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Haugesund?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, Haugesund 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Rosenborg and 53% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Haugesund in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 57% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Rosenborg's matches and 53% of Haugesund's.
Do Rosenborg and Haugesund tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Haugesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Haugesund 1-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.49 xG and Haugesund 0.95 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against Haugesund attack 0.68 / defence 1.18, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 47% | Draw 31% | Haugesund 22%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 77%, Haugesund 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.