Rosenborg 3-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 78%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Brann meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 20 May 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Rosenborg, 1.30 for Brann — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Brann in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 53% and Brann 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 63% | Brann 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 3.00 xG and Brann 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.355 / defence 0.813 | Brann attack 0.850 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.366. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — their λ of 3.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Brann bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Rosenborg games / 33 Brann games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 78% | Draw 14% | Brann 8%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.28 | Draw 7.14 | Brann 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (78%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Brann 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 20 May 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 78% | Draw 14% | Brann 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 59% | xG Rosenborg 3.00 / Brann 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.355 / def 0.813 | Brann attack 0.850 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.00
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Brann xG
59%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Brann kick off?
Rosenborg vs Brann kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 20 May 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Brann?
Rosenborg 3 - 2 Brann.
Where is Rosenborg vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Brann part of?
Rosenborg vs Brann is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 78% chance of winning, Brann a 8% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rosenborg and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Brann?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Brann in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.35x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 3.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.85x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
78%
1.28
14%
7.26
8%
12.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.00
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.94
0.94
Brann xG
1.28
78%
Home win
7.26
14%
Draw
12.21
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
5%
20.03
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 3.00 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.94 for Brann, a combined total of 3.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 7D 8L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Brann sit at 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Brann — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rosenborg's home form reads 10W 3D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Brann have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.33 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 73%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Brann in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 games (1.73 PPG), while Brann have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Brann away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.20 PPG; Brann away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Brann in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 3-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rosenborg
3
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 1, Brann have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Brann 3-2 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 67%, Brann 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Rosenborg and 53% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Brann in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rosenborg's games and 60% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Rosenborg's matches and 53% of Brann's.
Do Rosenborg and Brann tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Brann in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Brann 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Brann 3-2 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 3.00 xG and Brann 0.94 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Brann outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.35 / defence 0.81 against Brann attack 0.85 / defence 1.31, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 78% | Draw 14% | Brann 8%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 78%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 63%, Brann 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.