Rosenborg 1-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 September 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lerkendal Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bodo/Glimt are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rosenborg lead 2W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 0–4 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 54% versus Bodo/Glimt 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 56% | Bodo/Glimt 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.28 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.054 / defence 0.719 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.423 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.416. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.423 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Rosenborg's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Rosenborg games / 51 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 32% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 40%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Bodo/Glimt 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | Bodo/Glimt 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 32% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Rosenborg 1.28 / Bodo/Glimt 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.054 / def 0.719 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.423 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Bodo/Glimt xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Rosenborg 1 - 1 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 32% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (8 meetings): Rosenborg 2W | Draws 3 | Bodo/Glimt 3W.
What form are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.05) and Bodo/Glimt's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.42x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
32%
3.10
28%
3.62
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.72
1.45
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
8%
13.20
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.45 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 25W 11D 14L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 32W 11D 7L from 50 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rosenborg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.12 PPG from 24 outings (15W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 14W 6D 4L from 24 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.54 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Bodo/Glimt in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 25W 11D 14L in their last 50 games (1.72 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 32W 11D 7L in their last 50 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.12 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 4-0 on 24 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
5
Draws
3
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 54%, Bodo/Glimt 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Rosenborg) and 58% (Bodo/Glimt).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bodo/Glimt in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Rosenborg's games and 58% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Rosenborg's recent games and 58% of Bodo/Glimt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.28 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.45 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.05 / defence 0.72 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.42 / defence 0.73, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 32% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 40%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 56%, Bodo/Glimt 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.