ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stromsgodset make the trip to Skagerak Arena to face ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
ODD Ballklubb (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's home record at Skagerak Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stromsgodset have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Stromsgodset have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for ODD Ballklubb, 0.90 for Stromsgodset — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, Stromsgodset have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to ODD Ballklubb's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Stromsgodset have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
ODD Ballklubb half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Stromsgodset half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 58% versus Stromsgodset 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 58% | Stromsgodset 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.48 xG and Stromsgodset 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.944 / defence 1.262 | Stromsgodset attack 0.863 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.385. Data: 46 ODD Ballklubb games / 45 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 37% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 38%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Stromsgodset 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 80% | Stromsgodset 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 37% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.48 / Stromsgodset 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.944 / def 1.262 | Stromsgodset attack 0.863 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Stromsgodset xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 37% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
Record (9 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 3 | Stromsgodset 5W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 0.94x the league average against Stromsgodset's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.86x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
37%
2.73
25%
3.94
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.99
1.51
Stromsgodset xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.35
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.51 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 13W 12D 20L from 45 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 20L across 45 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.36 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 8W 7D 8L from 23 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 8W 3D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.18 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 12D 20L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 18W 7D 20L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Stromsgodset away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.35 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 5-1 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
3
Draws
5
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Stromsgodset see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 56%, Stromsgodset 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (ODD Ballklubb) and 39% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb have failed to score in 26% of games; Stromsgodset in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 44% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of ODD Ballklubb's recent games and 39% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Stromsgodset 2-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.48 xG and Stromsgodset 1.51 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stromsgodset landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 / defence 1.26 against Stromsgodset attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 37% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 38%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual ODD Ballklubb win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 58%, Stromsgodset 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.13 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.