Molde 3-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Molde vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ham-Kam make the trip to Aker Stadion to face Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Molde (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Molde against 1.70 for Ham-Kam. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Molde have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ham-Kam in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Molde, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Ham-Kam — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Molde winning.
The historical record gives Molde a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Molde half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 58% versus Ham-Kam 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 69% | Ham-Kam 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.49 xG and Ham-Kam 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.188 / defence 1.157 | Ham-Kam attack 1.070 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.324. Data: 48 Molde games / 49 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 35% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 41%. Fair-value odds: Molde 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Molde 70% | Ham-Kam 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 35% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Molde 1.49 / Ham-Kam 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.188 / def 1.157 | Ham-Kam attack 1.070 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Ham-Kam xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Molde vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Molde 3 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Molde vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Ham-Kam part of?
Molde vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 35% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Molde and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Ham-Kam?
Record (5 meetings): Molde 3W | Draws 2 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Molde and Ham-Kam in?
Molde (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Molde's attack rating (1.19) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (1.07x) against Molde's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
35%
2.86
24%
4.23
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Molde xG
Total xG
3.13
1.64
Ham-Kam xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
7%
14.72
9%
10.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Molde and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Molde and 1.64 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Molde have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 24W 10D 14L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam's form line: 15W 10D 23L from 48 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Molde have posted 1.83 PPG from 24 outings (13W 5D 6L).
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 8W 4D 12L from 24 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Molde are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.25 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Molde have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 24W 10D 14L in their last 48 games (1.71 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 15W 10D 23L in their last 48 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Ham-Kam away?
Molde's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 1.83 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Molde or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Molde have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 5-0 on 9 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Molde
2
Draws
1
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Molde have won 6, Ham-Kam have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Molde 4-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Ham-Kam?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 58%, Ham-Kam 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Molde and 54% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ham-Kam in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Molde's games and 54% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Molde's matches and 54% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Molde and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Ham-Kam 3-0 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.49 xG and Ham-Kam 1.64 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Molde beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ham-Kam landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.19 / defence 1.16 against Ham-Kam attack 1.07 / defence 0.85, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 35% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 41%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Molde win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 69%, Ham-Kam 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Molde (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.