Molde 6-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Molde at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Molde vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fredrikstad make the trip to Aker Stadion to face Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Molde (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fredrikstad have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Molde, 1.30 for Fredrikstad — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Molde lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Molde half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 57% versus Fredrikstad 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 67% | Fredrikstad 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.83 xG and Fredrikstad 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.259 / defence 1.045 | Fredrikstad attack 0.896 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.276. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Molde games / 21 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 52% | Draw 23% | Fredrikstad 25%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Fredrikstad 4.00. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Molde 60% | Fredrikstad 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 52% | Draw 23% | Fredrikstad 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Molde 1.83 / Fredrikstad 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.259 / def 1.045 | Fredrikstad attack 0.896 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Molde (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Fredrikstad xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Molde vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Fredrikstad?
Molde 6 - 1 Fredrikstad.
Where is Molde vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Fredrikstad part of?
Molde vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 52% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Molde and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Fredrikstad?
Record (1 meetings): Molde 0W | Draws 1 | Fredrikstad 0W.
What form are Molde and Fredrikstad in?
Molde (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Molde's attack rating (1.26) and Fredrikstad's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.90x) against Molde's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 50/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.37
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Molde xG
Total xG
3.03
1.19
Fredrikstad xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
4%
25.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Molde and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Molde and 1.19 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Molde have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 10W 5D 6L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad's form line: 9W 7D 5L from 21 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Molde against 1.62 for Fredrikstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Molde have posted 1.70 PPG from 10 outings (5W 2D 3L).
On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Molde are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.29 scored and 1.00 conceded. Molde's scoring rate against Fredrikstad's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Molde have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Fredrikstad in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 10W 5D 6L in their last 21 games (1.67 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 9W 7D 5L in their last 21 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Fredrikstad away?
Molde's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 1.70 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Molde or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Fredrikstad have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 6-1 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Molde
1
Draws
2
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Fredrikstad?
From 4 meetings on record, Molde have won 1, Fredrikstad have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Molde 1-2 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 60%, Fredrikstad 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Molde and 40% for Fredrikstad. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Fredrikstad in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Molde's recent matches and 40% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Molde vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Molde's matches and 40% of Fredrikstad's.
Do Molde and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Fredrikstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Fredrikstad 6-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.83 xG and Fredrikstad 1.19 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Molde beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.26 / defence 1.04 against Fredrikstad attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 50/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 52% | Draw 23% | Fredrikstad 25%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 67%, Fredrikstad 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Molde 1.67 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Molde win broke the near-deadlock. Molde (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.