Molde 3-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Molde at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Molde face Bodo/Glimt.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Molde and Bodo/Glimt meet at Aker Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Current Form

Molde's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Molde's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Molde against 1.80 for Bodo/Glimt. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Molde's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) — Molde have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Bodo/Glimt in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Molde, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended Molde 1–1 Bodo/Glimt — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Molde half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 57% versus Bodo/Glimt 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 70% | Bodo/Glimt 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.88 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.411 / defence 1.164 | Bodo/Glimt attack 0.992 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.238. Molde carry an above-average attack rating of 1.411 — their 1.88 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Molde's last 56 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 56.

Result probabilities: Molde 48% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 29%. Fair-value odds: Molde 2.07 | Draw 4.47 | Bodo/Glimt 3.41. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.88 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Molde's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Molde 70% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights