Mjondalen 0-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valerenga make the trip to Consto Arena to face Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjondalen have collected 1.33 PPG across 6 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 2D 2L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mjondalen have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valerenga's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.67. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Valerenga have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valerenga's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.33 PPG for Mjondalen against 1.50 for Valerenga. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Mjondalen have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Valerenga in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Mjondalen half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Valerenga half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjondalen 67% and Valerenga 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 50% | Valerenga 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.44 xG and Valerenga 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.865 / defence 1.029 | Valerenga attack 0.718 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.572. Valerenga bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Mjondalen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Mjondalen games / 6 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 44% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 30%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Valerenga 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjondalen as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjondalen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 67% | Valerenga 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 44% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Mjondalen 1.44 / Valerenga 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.865 / def 1.029 | Valerenga attack 0.718 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.572 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Valerenga xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Valerenga kick off?
Mjondalen vs Valerenga kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 July 2020 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Valerenga?
Mjondalen 0 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Mjondalen vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Valerenga part of?
Mjondalen vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 44% chance of winning, Valerenga a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mjondalen and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Valerenga?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjondalen and Valerenga in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Valerenga (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mjondalen's attack rating (0.86) and Valerenga's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valerenga's attack (0.72x) against Mjondalen's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
44%
2.30
26%
3.84
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.60
1.16
Valerenga xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
7%
13.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.16 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjondalen come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 2D 2L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Mjondalen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Valerenga sit at 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Valerenga, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Mjondalen against 1.50 for Valerenga. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjondalen are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.50 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjondalen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Valerenga in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Early Season
Valerenga
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
Have Mjondalen or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjondalen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Valerenga in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 4-1 on 3 Oct 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valerenga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
1
Draws
3
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Valerenga?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Valerenga have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2021, when Valerenga 2-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Mjondalen, 83% for Valerenga — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjondalen) and 67% (Valerenga). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Mjondalen's games and 83% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjondalen vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Mjondalen's matches and 67% of Valerenga's.
Do Mjondalen and Valerenga tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valerenga defy the odds to beat Mjondalen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Mjondalen 0-1 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.44 xG and Valerenga 1.16 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mjondalen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against Valerenga attack 0.72 / defence 1.32, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 44% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 30%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Valerenga win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 50%, Valerenga 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Valerenga's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjondalen 1.33 PPG, Valerenga 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Mjondalen managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Valerenga conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.