Lillestrom 3-0 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stabaek make the trip to Åråsen Stadion to face Lillestrom in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lillestrom have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's home record at Åråsen Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Stabaek (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Lillestrom against 0.90 for Stabaek. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lillestrom lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2021, ended 3–2 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lillestrom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 70% and Stabaek 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lillestrom 61% | Stabaek 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.36 xG and Stabaek 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.708 / defence 1.016 | Stabaek attack 1.130 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.274. Lillestrom's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Lillestrom games / 53 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 33% | Draw 30% | Stabaek 38%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Stabaek 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stabaek as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stabaek if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 50% | Stabaek 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 33% | Draw 30% | Stabaek 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Lillestrom 1.36 / Stabaek 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.708 / def 1.016 | Stabaek attack 1.130 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Stabaek xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Stabaek kick off?
Lillestrom vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Stabaek?
Lillestrom 3 - 0 Stabaek.
Where is Lillestrom vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Stabaek part of?
Lillestrom vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 33% chance of winning, Stabaek a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lillestrom and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Stabaek?
Record (1 meetings): Lillestrom 1W | Draws 0 | Stabaek 0W.
What form are Lillestrom and Stabaek in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Stabaek (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lillestrom's attack at 0.71x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (1.13x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
33%
3.05
30%
3.38
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.82
1.46
Stabaek xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
8%
13.18
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.46 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lillestrom come into this having played 23 games, going 10W 5D 8L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stabaek sit at 0.78 PPG from 23 outings (4W 6D 13L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Stabaek — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lillestrom's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Stabaek have taken 0.82 points per game from 11 outings (2W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.17 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Stabaek in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 10W 5D 8L in their last 23 games (1.52 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 4W 6D 13L in their last 23 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Stabaek away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.55 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 3-0 on 27 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Lillestrom
0
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Stabaek?
From 4 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 3, Stabaek have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Stabaek 1-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Stabaek?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 54% for Lillestrom, 82% for Stabaek — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Lillestrom and 82% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lillestrom's games and 82% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Lillestrom's matches and 82% of Stabaek's.
Do Lillestrom and Stabaek tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lillestrom run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Stabaek 3-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.36 xG and Stabaek 1.46 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stabaek landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.71 / defence 1.02 against Stabaek attack 1.13 / defence 1.07, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 33% | Draw 30% | Stabaek 38%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lillestrom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 61%, Stabaek 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Stabaek's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.