Lillestrom vs Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stabaek make the trip to Åråsen Stadion to face Lillestrom in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stabaek (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.50 xG and Stabaek 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Stabaek attack 1.043 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Data: 0 Lillestrom games / 30 Stabaek games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 34% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 39%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Stabaek 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stabaek as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stabaek if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 34% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Lillestrom 1.50 / Stabaek 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Stabaek attack 1.043 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Stabaek xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Stabaek kick off?
Lillestrom vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 11 April 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
Where is Lillestrom vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Stabaek part of?
Lillestrom vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 34% chance of winning, Stabaek a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lillestrom and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Stabaek?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lillestrom and Stabaek in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Stabaek away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lillestrom's attack at 0.85x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (1.04x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
34%
2.90
26%
3.83
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.12
1.62
Stabaek xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
7%
14.65
9%
11.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.62 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
Stabaek
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 3-0 on 27 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Lillestrom
0
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Stabaek?
From 4 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 3, Stabaek have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Stabaek 1-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Stabaek?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Lillestrom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom and Stabaek finished level at 0-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.50 xG and Stabaek 1.62 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Stabaek attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 34% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 39%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.