Lillestrom 1-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lillestrom host Haugesund at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lillestrom stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lillestrom have posted 4W 3D 3L at Åråsen Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Åråsen Stadion.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lillestrom are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Lillestrom have won 2, Haugesund 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 3–0 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Haugesund in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 63% and Haugesund 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 60% | Haugesund 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 2.02 xG and Haugesund 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.205 / defence 0.814 | Haugesund attack 0.943 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.259. Data: 33 Lillestrom games / 33 Haugesund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 62% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 17%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Haugesund 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Lillestrom (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 40% | Haugesund 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 62% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG Lillestrom 2.02 / Haugesund 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.205 / def 0.814 | Haugesund attack 0.943 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Haugesund xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Haugesund kick off?
Lillestrom vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Lillestrom 1 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Lillestrom vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Haugesund part of?
Lillestrom vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 62% chance of winning, Haugesund a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lillestrom and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Haugesund?
Record (2 meetings): Lillestrom 2W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Lillestrom and Haugesund in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Haugesund (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lillestrom's attack rating (1.21) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.78
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.98
0.97
Haugesund xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
13%
7.50
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
2%
43.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Lillestrom and 0.97 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Lillestrom have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 14W 7D 9L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Haugesund's form line: 9W 8D 13L from 30 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Lillestrom are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lillestrom have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 1W 5D 9L from 15 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.53 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 14W 7D 9L in their last 30 games (1.63 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Haugesund away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.80 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Haugesund in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Lillestrom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lillestrom
0
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Haugesund?
From 8 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 6, Haugesund have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Lillestrom 0-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Haugesund?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 47%, Haugesund 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lillestrom) and 53% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Haugesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 60% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lillestrom's recent games and 53% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and Haugesund tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lillestrom edge out Haugesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Haugesund 1-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 2.02 xG and Haugesund 0.97 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lillestrom fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.21 / defence 0.81 against Haugesund attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 62% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 17%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 60%, Haugesund 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Lillestrom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.