Kristiansund BK 2-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ODD Ballklubb make the trip to Kristiansund Stadion to face Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 June 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kristiansund BK's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Kristiansund BK at Kristiansund Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
ODD Ballklubb away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Kristiansund BK's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of ODD Ballklubb's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, ODD Ballklubb in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Kristiansund BK, 1 for ODD Ballklubb and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2020, ended 4–3 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kristiansund BK — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
ODD Ballklubb — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 83% and ODD Ballklubb 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kristiansund BK 70% | ODD Ballklubb 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.35 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.801 / defence 0.916 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.953 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.245. Data: 36 Kristiansund BK games / 34 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 42% | Draw 29% | ODD Ballklubb 29%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | ODD Ballklubb 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 4.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 80% | ODD Ballklubb 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Jun 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 42% | Draw 29% | ODD Ballklubb 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.35 / ODD Ballklubb 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.801 / def 0.916 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.953 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.09
ODD Ballklubb xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 June 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb?
Kristiansund BK 2 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 42% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (2 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kristiansund BK's attack rating (0.80) and ODD Ballklubb's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.95x) against Kristiansund BK's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 36/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
42%
2.39
29%
3.44
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.44
1.09
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.09 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 12W 12D 6L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 13W 4D 13L from 30 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 1.43 for ODD Ballklubb. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 1.67 PPG from 15 outings (7W 4D 4L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 5W 2D 8L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.73 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 12W 12D 6L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 4D 13L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.67 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kristiansund BK
4
Draws
1
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb?
From 8 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 3, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 80%, ODD Ballklubb 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Kristiansund BK and 53% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Kristiansund BK's games and 47% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kristiansund BK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat ODD Ballklubb 2-0 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.35 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.09 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.80 / defence 0.92 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.95 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 42% | Draw 29% | ODD Ballklubb 29%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 70%, ODD Ballklubb 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.60 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kristiansund BK win broke the near-deadlock. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.