Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kristiansund BK at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ODD Ballklubb make the trip to Kristiansund Stadion to face Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kristiansund BK's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK at Kristiansund Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kristiansund Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Kristiansund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
ODD Ballklubb (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Kristiansund BK's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of ODD Ballklubb's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Kristiansund BK, 1 for ODD Ballklubb and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2021, ended 2–0 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kristiansund BK — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
ODD Ballklubb — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 65% and ODD Ballklubb 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 59% | ODD Ballklubb 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 2.37 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.146 / defence 0.826 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.813 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.834 / away 1.314. Data: 49 Kristiansund BK games / 49 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 69% | Draw 21% | ODD Ballklubb 10%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.45 | Draw 4.76 | ODD Ballklubb 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Kristiansund BK (69%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kristiansund BK 40% | ODD Ballklubb 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 69% | Draw 21% | ODD Ballklubb 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 55% | xG Kristiansund BK 2.37 / ODD Ballklubb 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.146 / def 0.826 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.813 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.834 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
0.88
ODD Ballklubb xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 69% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 10% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (3 meetings): Kristiansund BK 2W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kristiansund BK's attack rating (1.15) and ODD Ballklubb's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.81x) against Kristiansund BK's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
69%
1.46
21%
4.75
10%
9.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.25
0.88
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.46
69%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
9.61
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
9%
10.67
Win to Nil
28%
3.53
1%
102.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 0.88 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 23W 14D 12L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 19W 9D 21L from 49 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 1.35 for ODD Ballklubb. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 2.00 PPG from 25 outings (15W 5D 5L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 7W 5D 13L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.61 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 23W 14D 12L in their last 49 games (1.69 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 19W 9D 21L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 2.00 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kristiansund BK
4
Draws
1
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb?
From 8 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 3, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 64%, ODD Ballklubb 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Kristiansund BK) and 56% (ODD Ballklubb). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Kristiansund BK's games and 48% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 56% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kristiansund BK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 23, as Kristiansund BK and ODD Ballklubb drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 2.37 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.88 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 2.4 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.15 / defence 0.83 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.81 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 69% | Draw 21% | ODD Ballklubb 10%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 59%, ODD Ballklubb 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.69 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.