Kristiansund BK 1-0 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kristiansund BK at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kristiansund Stadion plays host to Kristiansund BK versus Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 22 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Kristiansund BK (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mjondalen's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Kristiansund BK. A 1.00 PPG lead over Mjondalen (1.60 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Kristiansund BK 1W, Mjondalen 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2020, ended 2–1 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kristiansund BK — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Mjondalen — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 83% and Mjondalen 42% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 71% | Mjondalen 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 2.04 xG and Mjondalen 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.081 / defence 1.314 | Mjondalen attack 0.620 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.340. Mjondalen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.362 — this is suppressing Kristiansund BK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Kristiansund BK games / 24 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 59% | Draw 22% | Mjondalen 19%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Mjondalen 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Kristiansund BK (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 80% | Mjondalen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 59% | Draw 22% | Mjondalen 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Kristiansund BK 2.04 / Mjondalen 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.081 / def 1.314 | Mjondalen attack 0.620 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Mjondalen xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 November 2020 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen?
Kristiansund BK 1 - 0 Mjondalen.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 59% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen?
Record (1 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kristiansund BK's attack rating (1.08) and Mjondalen's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.62x) against Kristiansund BK's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
59%
1.71
22%
4.47
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.13
1.09
Mjondalen xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
13%
7.70
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
2%
40.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.09 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 9W 10D 5L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen's form line: 6W 2D 16L from 24 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kristiansund BK are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L).
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 2W 1D 8L from 11 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.88 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 9W 10D 5L in their last 24 games (1.54 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 6W 2D 16L in their last 24 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Mjondalen away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.45 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 5-0 on 27 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kristiansund BK have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
1
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Mjondalen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2021, when Mjondalen 5-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kristiansund BK see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Kristiansund BK, 54% for Mjondalen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Kristiansund BK and 54% for Mjondalen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Kristiansund BK's games and 54% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 54% of Mjondalen's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kristiansund BK edge out Mjondalen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Mjondalen 1-0 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 2.04 xG and Mjondalen 1.09 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kristiansund BK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.08 / defence 1.31 against Mjondalen attack 0.62 / defence 1.36, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 59% | Draw 22% | Mjondalen 19%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 71%, Mjondalen 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.