Kristiansund BK 0-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kristiansund BK face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 10 as Kristiansund BK welcome Bodo/Glimt to Kristiansund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 June 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Kristiansund Stadion this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Kristiansund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Kristiansund BK's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bodo/Glimt have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Kristiansund BK.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 65% and Bodo/Glimt 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kristiansund BK 62% | Bodo/Glimt 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.43 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.951 / defence 1.234 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.104 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.449. Data: 37 Kristiansund BK games / 39 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 28% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 50%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 3.57 | Draw 4.55 | Bodo/Glimt 2.00. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 70% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jun 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 28% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.43 / Bodo/Glimt 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.951 / def 1.234 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.104 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Bodo/Glimt xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 June 2022 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Kristiansund BK 0 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 28% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 50% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (3 meetings): Kristiansund BK 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 3W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
28%
3.59
22%
4.58
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
2 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.40
1.97
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.59
28%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
14%
7.19
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
4%
25.85
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.97 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 26W 16D 18L from 60 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 44W 12D 4L across 60 games — 2.40 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 17W 6D 7L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 19W 8D 3L across 30 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.70 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 26W 16D 18L in their last 60 games (1.57 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 44W 12D 4L in their last 60 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.90 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Kristiansund BK or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kristiansund BK have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
9
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kristiansund BK at 67%, Bodo/Glimt at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Kristiansund BK and 70% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kristiansund BK's games and 63% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Kristiansund BK 0-2 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.43 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.97 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.95 / defence 1.23 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 37/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 28% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 50%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 62%, Bodo/Glimt 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.