Haugesund 0-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Viking travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 July 2020, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 2W 2D 4L from 8 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Haugesund Stadion, Haugesund have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 1W 2D 5L from 8 outings — 0.62 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Haugesund at 1.00 PPG versus Viking's 0.62. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Viking in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 38% versus Viking 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 50% | Viking 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.52 xG and Viking 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.782 / defence 1.278 | Viking attack 0.561 / defence 1.584. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.454. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.584 — this is suppressing Haugesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Haugesund games / 8 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 48% | Draw 26% | Viking 26%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Viking 3.85. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 50% | Viking 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jul 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 48% | Draw 26% | Viking 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Haugesund 1.52 / Viking 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.782 / def 1.278 | Viking attack 0.561 / def 1.584 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Viking xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Viking kick off?
Haugesund vs Viking kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 18 July 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Viking?
Haugesund 0 - 2 Viking.
Where is Haugesund vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Viking part of?
Haugesund vs Viking is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 48% chance of winning, Viking a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Haugesund and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Viking in?
Haugesund (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Viking (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.78x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.58x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.89
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.56
1.04
Viking xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
6%
17.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.04 for Viking, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 2D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 0.62 PPG from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.00 PPG, Viking on 0.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.00 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 62%.
Defensively: Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Viking in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Viking have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Viking away?
Haugesund's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.00 PPG; Viking away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Viking in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Viking won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Viking specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
1
Draws
6
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Viking have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Haugesund 1-4 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Viking see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 50%, Viking 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Haugesund and 75% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Haugesund's recent matches and 50% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Haugesund's matches and 75% of Viking's.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Haugesund 0-2 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.52 xG and Viking 1.04 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Viking outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.78 / defence 1.28 against Viking attack 0.56 / defence 1.58, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 48% | Draw 26% | Viking 26%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 50%, Viking 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.00 PPG, Viking 0.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.