Haugesund 2-0 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 28 as Haugesund welcome Tromso to Haugesund Sparebank Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haugesund — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 4W 1D 5L at Haugesund Sparebank Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Tromso have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Haugesund) versus 1.20 (Tromso). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Haugesund's 20% and Tromso's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Haugesund, 3 for Tromso and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Haugesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Tromso in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 46% versus Tromso 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 49% | Tromso 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 0.98 xG and Tromso 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.588 / defence 0.925 | Tromso attack 0.781 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.289. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.588 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Haugesund games / 57 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 35% | Draw 32% | Tromso 33%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Tromso 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 20% | Tromso 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 35% | Draw 32% | Tromso 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Haugesund 0.98 / Tromso 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.588 / def 0.925 | Tromso attack 0.781 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Tromso xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Tromso kick off?
Haugesund vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Tromso?
Haugesund 2 - 0 Tromso.
Where is Haugesund vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Tromso part of?
Haugesund vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 35% chance of winning, Tromso a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Haugesund and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Tromso?
Record (7 meetings): Haugesund 3W | Draws 1 | Tromso 3W.
What form are Haugesund and Tromso in?
Haugesund (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Tromso (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Haugesund vs Tromso?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Tromso's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Tromso's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
35%
2.83
32%
3.15
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Haugesund xG
Total xG
1.91
0.93
Tromso xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 13.8 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Haugesund and 0.93 for Tromso, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund's recent record stands at 16W 12D 29L from 57 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tromso, meanwhile, have gone 27W 10D 20L across 57 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tromso by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 11W 3D 14L from 28 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tromso's away record stands at 14W 4D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.39 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Tromso in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 16W 12D 29L in their last 57 games (1.05 PPG), while Tromso have gone 27W 10D 20L in their last 57 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Tromso away?
Tromso's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.29 PPG; Tromso away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Tromso in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Tromso runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2021, when Haugesund won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Tromso specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
1
Draws
5
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, Tromso have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Tromso see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 43%, Tromso 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Haugesund) and 50% (Tromso).
On the defensive side: Tromso in 36%; Haugesund have failed to score in 36% of games; Tromso in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Tromso?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Haugesund's recent matches and 43% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Haugesund's recent games and 50% of Tromso's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Haugesund cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Tromso.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Tromso 2-0 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.98 xG and Tromso 0.93 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tromso landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.59 / defence 0.93 against Tromso attack 0.78 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 35% | Draw 32% | Tromso 33%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 49%, Tromso 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Tromso's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Haugesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.