Haugesund vs Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haugesund at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Haugesund and Stromsgodset meet at Haugesund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 14 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Haugesund (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stromsgodset's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Haugesund's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Stromsgodset's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Haugesund have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Stromsgodset in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Haugesund — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 57% and Stromsgodset 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 60% | Stromsgodset 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.68 xG and Stromsgodset 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.946 / defence 1.088 | Stromsgodset attack 1.061 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Haugesund games / 30 Stromsgodset games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 40% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 35%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Stromsgodset 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 60% | Stromsgodset 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 40% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Haugesund 1.68 / Stromsgodset 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.946 / def 1.088 | Stromsgodset attack 1.061 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Stromsgodset xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Haugesund vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 14 April 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
Where is Haugesund vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Stromsgodset part of?
Haugesund vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 40% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Haugesund and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stromsgodset?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Stromsgodset in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.95) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (1.06x) against Haugesund's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.92
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.24
1.56
Stromsgodset xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
8%
11.94
6%
15.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.56 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 11W 6D 13L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Haugesund against 1.03 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Haugesund are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.37 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Stromsgodset away?
Haugesund's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.40 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Stromsgodset have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stromsgodset won 0-5 on 6 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
2
Draws
4
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, Stromsgodset have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-0 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 53%, Stromsgodset 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Haugesund and 73% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund have failed to score in 27% of games; Stromsgodset in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Haugesund's games and 67% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 73% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Haugesund and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 3, as Haugesund and Stromsgodset drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.68 xG and Stromsgodset 1.56 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Stromsgodset attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 40% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 35%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 60%, Stromsgodset 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.30 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.