Haugesund 1-2 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandefjord make the trip to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to face Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haugesund have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Haugesund Sparebank Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sandefjord (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Haugesund, 0.90 for Sandefjord — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Haugesund 0W, Sandefjord 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 56% versus Sandefjord 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 63% | Sandefjord 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 2.46 xG and Sandefjord 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.162 / defence 0.958 | Sandefjord attack 0.874 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.224. Data: 57 Haugesund games / 57 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 67% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 12%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Sandefjord 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Haugesund (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haugesund at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 50% | Sandefjord 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 67% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 61% | xG Haugesund 2.46 / Sandefjord 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.162 / def 0.958 | Sandefjord attack 0.874 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Sandefjord xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Sandefjord kick off?
Haugesund vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Haugesund 1 - 2 Sandefjord.
Where is Haugesund vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Sandefjord part of?
Haugesund vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 67% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Haugesund and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sandefjord?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Haugesund and Sandefjord in?
Haugesund (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 1.16x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.87x) against Haugesund's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.3%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
67%
1.50
21%
4.72
12%
8.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.48
1.02
Sandefjord xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
8.33
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
9%
11.67
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
1%
97.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.02 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haugesund come into this having played 57 games, going 20W 13D 24L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.14 PPG from 57 outings (17W 14D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Haugesund against 1.14 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Haugesund's home form reads 14W 6D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.04 points per game from 28 outings (9W 2D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Haugesund are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.12 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 20W 13D 24L in their last 57 games (1.28 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 17W 14D 26L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Sandefjord away?
Haugesund's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.71 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Haugesund
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 50%, Sandefjord 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Haugesund and 61% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Haugesund's recent matches and 57% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Haugesund's matches and 61% of Sandefjord's.
Do Haugesund and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandefjord defy the odds to beat Haugesund 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Haugesund 1-2 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 2.46 xG and Sandefjord 1.02 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sandefjord outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.16 / defence 0.96 against Sandefjord attack 0.87 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 67% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 12%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Sandefjord win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 63%, Sandefjord 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.28 PPG, Sandefjord 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.