Haugesund 0-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Rosenborg (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Haugesund face Rosenborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Rosenborg travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 September 2025, 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Stadion: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Rosenborg's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Haugesund's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Rosenborg, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Haugesund.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Rosenborg winning.
It is worth noting that Rosenborg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 41% versus Rosenborg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 53% | Rosenborg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.31 xG and Rosenborg 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.700 / defence 1.371 | Rosenborg attack 0.879 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.391. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Haugesund games / 49 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 30% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 46%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Rosenborg 2.17. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Haugesund 30% | Rosenborg 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 30% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Haugesund 1.31 / Rosenborg 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.700 / def 1.371 | Rosenborg attack 0.879 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Rosenborg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Rosenborg kick off?
Haugesund vs Rosenborg kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Haugesund 0 - 3 Rosenborg.
Where is Haugesund vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Rosenborg part of?
Haugesund vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 30% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Haugesund and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
Record (9 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 3 | Rosenborg 5W.
What form are Haugesund and Rosenborg in?
Haugesund (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.70x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
30%
3.37
25%
4.03
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.99
1.68
Rosenborg xG
3.37
30%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
6%
17.99
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.68 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Haugesund have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 9W 10D 30L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg's form line: 24W 11D 14L from 49 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.08 PPG from 25 outings (8W 3D 14L).
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 9W 5D 11L from 25 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.57 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 9W 10D 30L in their last 49 games (0.76 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 24W 11D 14L in their last 49 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.08 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Rosenborg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Haugesund
3
Draws
6
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, Rosenborg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Haugesund 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 28%, Rosenborg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Haugesund) and 64% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Haugesund have failed to score in 52% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Haugesund's recent matches and 56% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Haugesund's recent games and 64% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Haugesund 0-3 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.31 xG and Rosenborg 1.68 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Rosenborg outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.70 / defence 1.37 against Rosenborg attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 30% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 46%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 53%, Rosenborg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Haugesund (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.